Peak Lithium Counterpoint from Gas 2.0

My presentation of Le Monde’s Peak Lithium story prompted some sage commentary from critics of the notion that lithium could ever run dry (so to speak). Rather than leaving the counter-argument buried in the comments, here’s a thoughtful elaboration argued from first principles by EV software developer Karen Pease.

The post appears on Gas 2.0, a blog dedicated to alternative fueling options that looks worthy of much deeper exploration.

One quick followup on the “drive less” front: Beijing has enacted agressive car restrictions. In essence the city is extending restrictions brought into play this summer in a desperate bid to clear the air for the Olympic games.

CN’s editor is feeling thoroughly vindicated for the optimism imparted in that coverage. Change is Always possible.

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Peak Lithium: EVs’ Dirty Little Secret?

Electric vehicles web-journal EV World has done the English-speaking world a favor by translating an excellent Peak Lithium story written last week by Le Monde journalist Hervé Kempf. What is Peak Lithium you ask? The notion that a wholesale shift to EVs powered by lithium batteries in response to peaking petroleum production could just as quickly exhaust the global supply of lithium metal.

Kempf credits a May 2008 study by consultancy Meridian International Research — The Trouble with Lithium 2 — as the source of growing concern over peak lithium; the study concluded that reasonable increases in lithium production over the next decade will generate enough of the light, energetic metal to produce batteries for only 8 million batteries of the sort that GM plans to use in its Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid.

But he does his own homework, providing an accessible introduction to the geological distribution of lithium and its likely magnitude. I say ‘likely’ because Kempf shows that industrial secrecy makes it difficult to assess the probability of a peak lithium scenario prematurely squelching the electrification of the automobile.

As George Pichon, CEO of French metals trader Marsmétal puts it in Kempf’s piece, the world of a lithium metal is “un monde fermé.”

Alas, it’s just a little less closed today thanks to Le Monde and EV World.

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This post was created for Tech Talk – Insights into tomorrow’s technology from the editors of IEEE Spectrum.